The whole idea of a âleveraged public-private partnershipâ between Pig Men and the American citizenry makes my blood curl. From an investment point of view the bigger winners from this will be the âprivateâ looters like Blackrock and Pimco. However for me, there are two problems with speculating along side those players.� First, I...
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Archive for March, 2009
Actionable Cloak of Complexity
Actionable The Game
For the new government intervention programs to work some of the big players need to get back in the game. Key players are the primary dealers (PD) who represent an integral role especially at the security underwriting stage. The fact that they have reduced agency holdings on the order of $100 billion and corporate...
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Actionable The Latest in Smoke and Mirrors
February margin debt data is out, and to some surprise was not reduced significantly despite the big drop in stock prices. This means that accounts were less adequately collateralized and thus this report should be construed as “less constructive”.
On other fronts the US Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) changed the mark-to-market rules...
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Break the Financial Oligarchy
Must read from former chief economist of the IMF.
QUOTE
The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of...
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Actionable Hold Your Horses
Insiders are continuing to beat a hasty retreat as the market exploded higher. Wages withheld continue to weaken by degree, and in fact on a year over year basis is pushing an ugly negative 6%, as bad as it has been.
Consumer spending and sentiment actually has notched worse recently, and wait...
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Actionable Bahia
I currently out in Bahia away from Salvador (Brazil), have a slow connection, so will take a little break until Friday. For anybody looking for great vacation spot I would recommend Morro de Sao Paulo on an island along Brazil’s coast south of Salvador. It is very reasonable price wise, with a great assortment...
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Tem Cuidado
New Actionable post available.
excerpt-
To me the roots of this rally lie in the fact that too much money was stuffed into many low risk (perceived) mattresses, relative to stock market capitalization. It was also signaled by a big insider buying binge. When returns on cash are...
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Actionable Tem Cuidado
To ensure that you get the RSS feed on these posts go to the following link, and click the RSS feed on the address bar. There is also a public forum there for discussion. It appears that comments are working fine.
To me the roots of this rally roots lies with the fact that...
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Actionable Same Ole Same Ole
Options expiration left me about 50% invested, and the open selections have been updated. Most of the March puts I had sold expired successfully worthless. I had some FWLT, STP and EME put to me, and the calls I wrote against KEY expired without calling the stock. I will sell KEY today if trades...
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Actionable Rubicon: and a Cold Sweat
“The problem with hyperinflation is that it happens so fast. We never realized what was happening until it was too late.” -South American banker
For subscribers to the podcast the Fed’s apparent crossing of the Rubicon mentioned in yesterday’s post was covered in spades. Although my personal holdings are now at an all...
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Actionable Think Like a Wealthy Latin American in 1986
Although the economy is slowly healing towards the natural, the Fed apparently has little patience for that, and instead has thrown down the gauntlet for some extremely irresponsible helicopter drops. Is this a bluff, or a contingency? It is best not to wait and see I fear, as it may then be too late.
Actionable Nice!
We’ve had a quite nice flash trading rally, but now the McClellan Oscillator has hit 259. There is resistance at about 80.65. The time for accumulation has past, and thus I will not being creating a flurry of stock ideas as I have for the past month or so. If I had to hazard...
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Actionable Odds and Ends
Another massive insider buying binge lead this rally. Notice the big reversal the last time this happened, so might be a good signal for the potential of the rally. Click to enlarge.
The enormous “panic” and I think unsustainable drawdown in inventories caused by depressionary conditions can be seen here.
Calculated Risk:...
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Actionable The End of the Line For Bubbles
New podcast available with Lee Adler, Aaron Krowne, and myself. I thought Aaron had some interesting commentary about surplus nations, and shifts in economic activity.
I offer two chart to show what a normal non Bubble set up looks like. Stock market capitalization at S&P 750 would be about $8.75 trillion. Against a $14.2...
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Actionable Wonder Rallies
I am never quite sure what to make of ferocious one day wonder rallies, except to take them. I much prefer sneaky rallies like the one that developed in December to early January. Obviously, the market became severely oversold and compressed, so this rally should not be any surprise. However, we have seen the...
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Actionable Buying Ski Caps During the Silly Season
The highest quality real estate in the US is now also going for a song, a pittance. I have held zero real estate since 2004, and have now determined to up my exposure to about 5%. I have already discussed and bought Potlach (PCH, average cost $21.69) and St. Joe, (JOE, average cost 19.29). ...
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Actionable Enough Already
Over the weekend I wrote a short post that mentioned about half the stocks in the Wilshire 5000 are trading under $5, meaning effectively that they have already been given up for dead. My thoughts a month ago was to start focusing on big cap names thinking they offered better value. Indeed on Friday,...
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The Wall Street Examiner
- I Hate When Maria Says This
- Bulls and bears confused
- Precious Metals Update 9/8/10 – Professional Edition
- Cut the Costs or Die Doing it
- Lost Money/Fast Money- Understanding the Language on Bearish Days
- Lost Money/Fast Money…Understanding the Language on Bearish Days
- Lost Money/Fast Money…Understanding the Language on Bullish Days
- Mediocre meandering
- Bears Win Skirmish- Professional Edition UPDATED
- Lost Money Minor League Fill-Ins
Winter Watch
- jobless-claims-in-u-s-decreased-27-000-to-451-000-last-week September 9, 2010
- OMG! Is that a double top in silver? September 9, 2010
- Michael Lewis on Greek Finances... September 9, 2010
- Gold tracking US Treasury debt September 9, 2010
- "Drunken, Rowdy Bond Market Is About to Be Ill"... September 9, 2010
- Greek 10 year almost at 12% September 9, 2010
- Break or Make, Die or Do- Professional Edition September 9, 2010
- Gold gravestone doji today September 9, 2010
- Nascent nonchalance September 9, 2010
- CNBC parody... September 9, 2010
Bears Chat
- jobless-claims-in-u-s-decreased-27-000-to-451-000-last-week September 9, 2010
- OMG! Is that a double top in silver? September 9, 2010
- Michael Lewis on Greek Finances... September 9, 2010
- Gold tracking US Treasury debt September 9, 2010
- "Drunken, Rowdy Bond Market Is About to Be Ill"... September 9, 2010
- Greek 10 year almost at 12% September 9, 2010
- Break or Make, Die or Do- Professional Edition September 9, 2010
- Gold gravestone doji today September 9, 2010
- Nascent nonchalance September 9, 2010
- CNBC parody... September 9, 2010